Inditex makes history: its profit reaches an unprecedented 4

Dołączył: 05 Mar 2024 Posty: 1

For this reason, Ebury continues to foresee a rate increase of 50 basis points at tomorrow's meeting, although they recognize that there is likely to be at least some dovish disagreement within the Council. 2. Reversing would send a panic message But there is a second reason that may lead Lagarde to hold her ground, and that is that backing down now could send a message of panic to the markets . In its last meeting held at the beginning of February , the ECB raised rates by 0.5% and sent a clear message: it would continue with the hard line of increases, preparing the markets for what was going to happen in the following meetings, and leaving fall that it would do the same in March (rarely has the bank been so explicit in its future guidance). "If they hadn't said it, perhaps they would have considered an increase of 25 basis points," says Jorge Sicilia, chief economist of the BBVA Group and director of BBVA Research.

After revealing his cards, "the normal thing is that they rise 50 basis points, but it is also normal that they stop promising new increases and, instead, analyze the data as they come out," adds Sicilia. Backing down after having been so explicit with his next steps could plunge the markets into uncertainty. But turning a deaf ear to possible financial imbalances would be Asia Phone Number List shooting yourself in the foot. "The multiplicity of financial risks requires certain flexibility in carrying out monetary tightening," warns Axel Botte, global market strategist at Ostrum AM, manager of the Natixis IM group. The worst of the rate hikes is yet to come: how long will it take for them to unleash their full impact on households? People on the street with shopping bags 3. Low risk of contagion The point is that, for now, the risk of contagion for the European financial system is ruled out. In our opinion, these risks are relatively minimal, and we believe that the main message from the ECB will remain aggressive," they predict from Ebury.

What has happened to the SVB has not been a problem of lack of solvency, but of lack of liquidity : "there was no hole in the SVB's balance sheet due to credit losses in its asset portfolio, but only the mechanical impact of some higher interest rates on a very high-quality bond portfolio," clarifies Yves Bonzon, CIO of the Swiss private bank Julius Baer. In other words: the rise in rates led many SVB clients to withdraw money, but the bank had invested that money in long-term bonds, and it was this lack of liquidity in meeting client requests that dragged it into the bankruptcy. "There is something strange in what has happened at SVB that should not be extended to other banks. This crisis does not show any credit problem , it is very different from the type of previous crises, such as the financial one, that generated problems in the banking sector," Sicily agrees.

Wysłany: Wto Mar 05, 2024 05:07